US economy can avoid recession
The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) experts consider that the economy of the United States can still avoid recession.
The weekly index of the future economic growth (Weekly Leading Index, WLI), data about which has been published by institute, has decreased, and rates of its decrease in annual calculation have reached levels, characteristic for the periods of recession, however, the economy of the USA has not settled all opportunities to avoid recession.
WLI Index has gone down up to 132,3 items for a week, which has come to the end on February, 15th, from the reconsidered value in 133,1 week earlier. Thus rates of index growth in annual calculation have decreased since minus 9,2 % up to minus of 10,2 %, having reached a minimum level.
Decrease in this index is caused by growth of interest rates and a proceeding crisis in the real estate market, though these factors have been partly compensated by growth of monetary weight and strengthening of the share markets.
Institute analysts mark that considering, that rates of WLI index growth are deeply in a minus, mainly because of problems in financial and building sectors, the economy of the USA stands at the verge of recession. Nevertheless, considering the unusual factors influencing real estate sector, it is still possible, that urgent stimulus will prevent recession.
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